16 questions and answers about the 2016 GOP delegate fight
This post has been updated to reflect Missouri certifying its results.
Once upon a time, it seemed so simple: The Republican candidates would compete in primaries and caucuses, delegates would be awarded, and whoever got to 1,237 delegates would be the party's presidential nominee.
But somewhere in between Rick Perry announcing he would run for president and Jim Gilmore announcing that he was dropping out of the race, things got more complicated, and now there is a scramble for delegates going on all over the country, including places that have already voted.
Here are some answers to questions we have been getting about the Republican delegate chase.
1. Why is 1,237 the magic number?
Republicans will send 2,472 delegates to the convention in Cleveland in July. 1,237 is half-plus-one, a simple majority, which is all that is needed to win the nomination.
2. Won't somebody lock up that many delegates before the convention?
According to the Republican National Committee, as of April 11, Donald Trump has 755 delegates, Ted Cruz has 491 and John Kasich has 144, with 835 delegates remaining to be allocated so Trump or Cruz could still theoretically get to 1,237 before the convention. But that is looking increasingly unlikely.
3. How come those aren't the totals in USA TODAY news stories?
Because we don't use the RNC totals — we and other news organizations use the Associated Press totals, which are tallied state-by-state and based on detailed reporting by the news service. Their totals are Trump 743, Cruz 545 and Kasich 143.
4. Why do different outlets have different totals?
Many states haven't certified their results yet, which has led different news organizations and the RNC to use their own reporting and criteria when allocating delegates. Take, Missouri, for instance, which held its primary on March 15. Trump won the state by less than 1 percentage point, a margin so narrow that Cruz, who finished second, had an opportunity to request a recount. Consequently, AP opted to take a more conservative approach to delegate allocation and not count them for Trump, given the possibility, however slim, of a recount, while other news organizations deemed Trump the winner earlier. Missouri certified its results Tuesday morning.
5. But aren't the delegates up to the RNC?
Nope. Delegates are awarded by the Republican Party in each state, and each state has different rules for distributing them.
6. What do you mean "different rules"?
Some states — like Ohio and Florida — are winner-take-all for the whole state. Other states, like Iowa and Michigan, distribute delegates proportionately based on the statewide vote. Other states are a hybrid. For instance, New York distributes 11 at-large delegates by statewide vote and three delegates for each of 27 congressional districts. That means there are effectively 28 different contests in New York, and a candidate receiving more that 50% of the vote in any of those contests captures all of that portion of delegates.
7. So there are three Republican delegates even in a district with a Democratic member of Congress?
Right. And in New York City, some of the districts have 85% Democratic registration. That means there may be only 15,000 people voting in a Republican primary, and a candidate that can get 50% of those votes wins 3 delegates. Compare that to Ohio, where more than 700,000 people voted for Trump and he received zero delegates.
8. But at least voters pick all the Republican delegates, unlike Democratic "superdelegates," right?
Not really. Democrats do have a group of about 700 party leaders who can vote for any candidate they choose, and Republicans do not have the same system. But Republicans do have "unbound" delegates. These are delegates who go to the convention without being committed to any candidate. Pennsylvania will send 71 delegates to the convention, but only 17 will be bound by the statewide vote. The 54 congressional district delegates will be "unbound" and free to support whoever they choose at the convention.
9. So we won't know who some delegates are supporting?
We might not. Some of the "unbound" delegates declare their preference before being picked for the convention, so they are publicly committed. But they can also declare a preference not to commit.
10. What's going on in Colorado? Trump says it's a scandal.
The RNC required every state having a primary or preference poll to distribute bound delegates based on the results. The Colorado Republican Party chose not to have a vote, but to choose delegates through local conventions, which would allow them to be "unbound." Unfortunately for Trump, Ted Cruz was more successful at organizing in the state conventions, so 34 of Colorado's 37 delegates have stated a preference for Cruz.
11. Why are there fights over delegates that have already voted?
Because in some states, the candidates won a certain number of delegate slots, but the people serving as those delegates would be named later.
12. Does that matter?
It matters a lot if nobody gets to the magic number of 1,237 delegates. In 31 states, delegates are only bound for the first ballot at the convention. If there is no nominee after that ballot, they become "unbound" and can vote for anybody they want. Seven more states become unbound after the second ballot. This is why campaigns want to choose the delegates, not just win the slots. If Ted Cruz can get one of his supporters elected to serve as a Trump delegate, that person can switch to Cruz on the second ballot.
13. What happens to the Rubio delegates?
Marco Rubio suspended his presidential campaign after collecting 171 delegates, but each state's rules govern what happens to those delegates. Rubio won the March 1 Minnesota caucuses and was awarded 17 delegates; the state Republican party says its delegates "are bound to vote for the candidate whose delegate slot they hold if that candidate is on the first ballot." That is a very critical "if," and it may come down to the convention Rules Committee deciding which candidate names are on that first convention ballot. Rubio has written to several states asking that his delegate slots remain bound to him, but he is not talking about what he plans to do with them.
14. Who is on the Rules Committee?
We don't have all those names yet. Each state and territory gets to name two delegates — a man and a woman — to serve on the Rules Committee. Those 112 people will draft the rules for the 2016 convention a few days before the rest of the delegates convene, and then the full convention will have to adopt the rules. Candidates want to get their sympathizers on the rules committee to shape the convention rules in their favor.
15. Is there any particular rule we should be monitoring?
There is. A rule, known as Rule 40, which was implemented in 2012, mandated that for a candidate to be considered for the nomination at the convention, he or she must have secured a majority of delegates in at least eight states. The rule was implemented at the behest of Mitt Romney backers to prevent Ron Paul from being placed in nomination, FactCheck.org notes, after Paul seemed close to reaching the existing threshold at the time.
If that rule is retained, that would almost certainly spell bad news for Kasich, who so far has only won his home state of Ohio, in his long-shot bid to emerge from a contested convention. And it would obviously rule out any possibility of someone like Paul Ryan from being chosen. However, just as the rule was modified in 2012, it could be changed again by the Rules Committee in Cleveland.
16. So why didn't we care about all this four years ago?
Most times the nomination battle, for all intents and purposes, ends prior to a candidate securing the magic number of delegates. And you'd have to go back to 1952 — long before the current primary system — for the last convention that required multiple ballots, when Adlai Stevenson captured the Democratic nomination. The last multi-ballot contest for the GOP occurred four years earlier, when Thomas Dewey won on the third ballot.
Four years ago, Rick Santorum, who'd emerged as Mitt Romney's main rival, dropped out in April, even though Romney hadn't yet won enough delegates to clinch the nomination. Santorum's departure made Romney the presumptive GOP nominee (Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich were still in the race but were no longer serious threats to pick up delegates). That's been the way primary campaigns have played out almost every time in the modern age.
But in this year's Republican race, that's not going to happen — because of math, because of rules, and because Ted Cruz, John Kasich and the Republican Party establishment are far from ready to presume that Donald Trump will be their standard-bearer.
Contributing: Ledyard King
More coverage of the race for GOP delegates:
Cruz, Trump, Kasich scrounge for GOP convention delegates
Kasich's long-shot plan to send delegates to convention
How a committee could ruin John Kasich's presidential hopes
The battle to deny Donald Trump the GOP nomination: How '2nd primary' for delegates works
Florida's delegate rules could boost Donald Trump at contested convention
Trump to get 25 Mich. delegates at GOP convention