Bubble Tracker: Which teams are the wild cards this year?
Much of the water-cooler chatter regarding NCAA tournament bubble teams following Selection Sunday is around which teams get snubbed. But there's also the side of it where teams get lucky.
Last year, for instance, Tulsa was the biggest head-scratcher among teams the selection committee put into the field of 68.
Here's a look at some wild card teams that could experience a similar fate in two weeks.
Georgia
The Bulldogs’ season theme has been almost there, namely in overtime losses to Florida and Kentucky. Had Georgia (16-12, 8-8) won one of those, its résumé would be hard to turn away. Without a marquee victory — its best win came against fellow bubble team Vanderbilt — Mark Fox’s team is in the thick of the bubble race.
A top-25 strength of schedule bodes well for an at-large bid, as do wins against the other borderline Southeastern Conference teams — Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama — they’re competing against.
Will the committee notice or ignore how much Georgia looked like a tournament team in television games against the Gators and the Wildcats? Or will it see a lack of big wins and a damaging loss to Oakland?
Illinois
This might be one of the toughest teams to assess for the selection committee, which has been unimpressed with the Big Ten, on Selection Sunday. What makes the Illini’s at-large path so interesting is how the weak bubble and the season’s development are essentially paving the way for them to reach the tournament.
Tennessee’s loss Sunday, for instance, pushed Illinois (16-12, 7-9) in USA TODAY Sports’ bracketology as one of the last teams in. And what appeared to be a bad loss to Winthrop in November has turned into a top-75 loss. With no ugly losses and two wins against Northwestern, a team it’s competing with for a bid, it’s easier to look past the number of losses.
Also factor in Wisconsin’s slide, which hurts teams that beat the Badgers (such as Northwestern), and something as small as Brigham Young defeating Gonzaga on Saturday. Illinois beat BYU in non-conference play, and also has a nice victory against VCU to along with a top-20 strength of schedule.
Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons (16-12, 7-9) have a much better record in the ACC than bubble teams Clemson and Pittsburgh. But unlike those teams they don’t really have any signature victories, although a win against Miami (Fla.) is looking better and better the more the Hurricanes surge.
And similar to Georgia, some very near-upset losses will be hard to look past. A top-20 non-conference strength of schedule is also impressive. A home game Wednesday against Louisville is a perfect opportunity for Wake Forest to enhance its credentials.
Rhode Island
The Rams’ at-large hopes appeared shot after a one-point loss to Dayton, which preceded a bad loss to Fordham. But Dan Hurley’s team, winner of seven of its last nine, has shown resiliency and jumped back into the mix after Saturday’s 10-point win against VCU. That gives Rhode Island (19-9, 11-5) two marquee wins, the other coming against Cincinnati.
Thanks to a weak bubble this year, Rhode Island — sporting a Ratings Percentage Index of 42 — has a legitimate chance to squeak in if it can win its last two regular-season games and make a deep run in the Atlantic 10 tournament.
BRACKETOLOGY: Full field of 68
Results/records shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data as of Feb. 27.
Syracuse (In for now)
► Profile: 17-13 (9-8) 78 RPI, 45 SoS, 179 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Duke
- The Bad: Losses vs. UConn, Saint Johns, Boston College
Virginia Tech (In for now)
► Profile: 20-8 (9-7) 39 RPI, 67 SoS, 286 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Duke, Clemson (twice), Syracuse, Ole Miss, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh
- The Bad: No bad losses
Clemson (Out for now)
► Profile: 14-14 (4-12) 61 RPI, 14 SoS, 107 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Wake Forest (twice), UNC-Wilmington, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Alabama, Georgia Tech, UNC-Wilmington
- The Bad: Loss vs. Oklahoma
Georgia Tech (Out for now)
► Profile: 15-13 (7-9) 95 RPI, 50 SoS, 257 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Florida State, VCU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Syracuse
- The Bad: Losses vs. Ohio, North Carolina State
Wake Forest (Out for now)
► Profile: 16-12 (7-9) 45 RPI, 21 SoS, 17 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Miami, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
- The Bad: No bad losses
Pittsburgh (Out for now)
► Profile: 15-14 (4-12) 63 RPI, 7 SoS, 44 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Maryland, Marquette, Penn State, Syracuse
- The Bad: Losses vs. North Carolina State, Duquesne
Rhode Island (Out for now)
► Profile: 19-9 (11-5) 42 RPI, 23 SoS, 55 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Cincinnati, VCU
- The Bad: Losses vs. LaSalle, Fordham
Northwestern (In for now)
Profile: 20-9 (9-7) 50 RPI, 64 SoS, 149 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Indiana
- The Bad: No bad losses
Illinois (In for now)
► Profile: 16-12 (7-9) 57 RPI, 17 SoS, 37 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. VCU, Northwestern (twice), Ohio State, Michigan
- The Bad: No bad losses
Providence (In for now)
► Profile: 18-11 (8-8) 52 RPI, 33 SoS, 184 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Vermont, Georgetown (twice), Marquette (twice), Butler, Xavier, Creighton
- The Bad: Losses vs. Saint Johns, Boston College, DePaul
Seton Hall (In for now)
► Profile: 18-10 (8-8) 49 RPI, 49 SoS, 170 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, California, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Creighton, Xavier
- The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns
Marquette (In for now)
► Profile: 17-11 (8-8) 72 RPI, 56 SoS, 222 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Georgetown, Xavier
- The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns
TCU (Out for now)
► Profile: 16-12 (6-10) 60 RPI, 27 SoS, 123 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
- The Bad: No bad losses
Kansas State (Out for now)
► Prfofile: 17-12 (6-10) 68 RPI, 51 SoS, 236 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
- The Bad: No bad losses
USC (In for now)
► Profile: 21-8 (8-8) 38 RPI, 61 SoS, 163 non-conferene SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. SMU, UCLA, Stanford
- The Bad: Loss to Arizona State
California (Out for now)
► Profile: 19-9 (10-6) 51 RPI, 47 SoS, 58 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. USC, Utah, Stanford
- The Bad: Loss vs. San Diego State
Vanderbilt (In for now)
► Profile: 16-13 (9-7) 48 RPI, 4 SoS, 1 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas, Belmont, Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee
- The Bad: Loss vs. Missouri
Georgia (Out for now)
► Profile: 16-12 (8-8) 56 RPI, 22 SoS, 24 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama
- The Bad: Loss vs. Oakland
Tennessee (Out for now)
► Profile: 14-14 (7-9) 66 RPI, 10 SoS, 12 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
- The Bad: Loss vs. Mississippi State
Alabama (Out for now)
► Profile: 16-12 (9-7) 96 RPI, 69 SoS, 89 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia
- The Bad: Loss vs. Texas
Ole Miss (Out for now)
► Profile: 18-11 (9-7) 70 RPI, 57 SoS, 67 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn (twice), Memphis
- The Bad: No bad losses
Assume these teams do not win their conference tourney to secure the auto-bid.
Wichita State (In for now)
► Profile: 26-4 (17-1) 40 RPI, 149 SoS, 160 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Win vs. Illinois State, Colorado State
- The Bad: No bad losses
Middle Tennessee State (In for now)
► Profile: 24-4 (15-1) 29 RPI, 123 SoS, 14 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Wilmington, Vanderbilt, Belmont, Ole Miss
- The Bad: Losses vs. Georgia State, Tennessee State, UTEP
Illinois State (Out for now)
► Profile: Illinois State 24-5 (17-1) 33 RPI, 140 SoS, 119 non-conference SoS
- The Good: Win vs. Wichita State, New Mexico
- The Bad: Losses vs. Tulsa, Murray State
***
Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.
About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.
NCAA TOURNAMENT BUBBLE TEAMS