The Dak Factor: Prescott's success is cause for NFL draft reflection

In the days heading into the 2016 NFL draft, almost no one was talking about Dak Prescott.

Instead, the quarterback buzz was all about the top two picks in the class, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, as well as Paxton Lynch, who also wound up as a first rounder, and Connor Cook, who fell to pick No. 100.

That Prescott, taken with pick No. 135 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in the fourth round, had by far the best rookie season of any of the 15 passers drafted last year hangs over the 2017 draft as both prospects and team officials wonder who – if anyone – in this class could be the next version of the NFL’s reigning offensive rookie of the year.

Seven quarterbacks were picked ahead of Prescott, so even though the Cowboys ultimately landed him (after a failed attempt to trade up to draft Lynch in the first round), each team passed on him at least once. Now they are left to reflect on what they missed and the criteria involved in their decisions.

Teams put themselves through a similar process after Russell Wilson’s early success after falling to the Seattle Seahawks in the third round in the 2012 draft.

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“When someone like that has success, go back and see where did we have that player? Were we right on him and just didn't take him because we didn't have a need? We were wrong on him? Did he prove us wrong?” Los Angeles Rams general manager Les Snead, who traded up to take Goff with the top pick in 2016, told USA TODAY Sports.

“And if he did prove us wrong, then you start to look at all the data that comes in on that player, and looking at that data and figuring out of that data (asking) what might have been that trigger to go, ‘Hey, next time when we have this situation, let's focus on that variable,’ ” Snead said. “That's what you've got to do with those two players and many others who kind of prove you wrong.”

The knocks on Prescott a year ago were multi-faceted, and he dropped for both on- and off-field reasons, including an arrest on a DUI charge about six weeks before the draft. He played in a spread offense at Mississippi State and completed just 62.8% of his passes in his four years in Starkville, Miss. The fact that Tim Tebow was the comparison he most frequently drew in college didn’t help, either.

While NFL teams might have focused too much on Prescott’s completion rate, they might have been better off focusing on his decision making. He threw just five interceptions as a senior and that carried over to the NFL. He threw just four (and lost four fumbles) in his rookie year.

“When you look at Dak Prescott, he was a smart kid. His (college) offense did some intermediate and deep throws. It wasn't just all tunnels and whatever. And he didn't turn the football over, which was really key to me, even though his front was overwhelmed a bunch, ” NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. “Eight total turnovers for a rookie quarterback is crazy (good).”

But with Prescott (and also with Wilson) the thing that teams misjudged the most was intangible — that their poise and leadership would immediately translate into a locker room full of NFL veterans and onto the field.

“The reality is, the guys in my mind, who are innate leaders and have a great understanding of the game, that can’t be overstated,” Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff told USA TODAY Sports. “When I was younger in the business, I thought it all had to do with a big arm. Now I know it comes in different packages.”

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Even this year's prospects have taken notice of Prescott's example.

“Being able to watch him, his success, and where he's coming from, and just how he's been able to translate to the professional league and be so calm and poised and lead a great franchise like the Cowboys and be a playoff contending team and just have all the success. So just being able to watch him do what (he’s done) is very humbling and builds confidence for all the younger guys," said former Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, a likely first-round pick.

Still, multiple general managers — from John Elway of the Denver Broncos (who traded up for Lynch last year) and Rick Smith of the Houston Texans (expected to draft a quarterback this year) — said recently that the lesson to take from Prescott’s success is not in what might have been missed in the scouting process, but rather in the situation Prescott found himself in with the Cowboys, who had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, the league's leading rusher in rookie running back pick Ezekiel Elliott and a star receiver in Dez Bryant.

“You’ve got people around him that are going to make him a better player. I don’t believe you can find guys late in the draft that are going to help a team in the top 10,” Elway said Monday.

Said Smith last week: "I think (the Cowboys) were very fortunate. I mean, I think he did an outstanding job. I think they did an outstanding job collectively of putting him in a position to be successful.

"It’s rare that you get a guy to come in and play at a high level at the position early, but it’s certainly possible. I think he proved that last year.”

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Follow Lindsay H. Jones on Twitter @bylindsayhjones

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