NHL draft 2017: Active month in rankings; biggest surprises in Europe
As usual, November was Red Line Report's busiest months for additions and list movement, both up and down, in our rankings. We spend more time shuffling the rankings and adding new players this time of year than any other month.
That’s because we’re two months into the CHL schedule, and the first round of tournaments from “International Week” are in the books. So while there may still be a few hidden gems that haven’t bubbled up onto our radar, our scouts have now seen the bulk of the talent that will comprise the 2017 draft class. As always, there have been some pleasant early season surprises and breakouts, as well as a few disappointing kids who haven’t lived up to advance billing.
Most of the top surprises hail from Europe thus far. A couple of slightly built centers — Finn Aleksi Heponiemi and Swiss Nico Hischier — coming to North America and dazzling so quickly out of the gate in the WHL and QMJHL, respectively, has been a revelation.
Perhaps not so surprising, but more gratifying, has been the sustained excellence of Czech center Martin Necas. We fell in love at first sight with Necas last November at the World U-17 Challenge in Fort St. John, British Columbia. But he — like Heponiemi and Hischier — was listed at a scrawny 5-foot-11, 150 pounds back then, and proceeded to miss the second half of last season due to injury and illness.
NHL draft 2017: Strength in forwards
So while we had hopes, there was also a healthy dose of skepticism. Then he showed up to the Hlinka tourney in August all grown up (at a modest 6-1, 167), and proceeded to lay waste to the competition. And our man in Sweden reports that he was equally impressive earlier this month playing up a level at the U-20 Four Nations. So his play thus far warrants a boost into our top 15.
The big winner among North American surprises has to be London center Robert Thomas. The Knights are a team that normally breaks youngsters in slowly, but Thomas has already assumed a top-six role, is seeing time on the power play, and is averaging a point per game. All from a player who wasn’t in our OHL preseason top 20.
Rising:
Miro Heiskanen (IFK Helsinki) — Super intelligent and mobile blueliner has shown three full months of sustained excellence from last summer’s Hlinka tourney until now.
Greg Meireles (Kitchener) — Spent last year in Tier II, so was virtually unknown prior to the start of the season, but has quickly established himself as a two-way force in Kitchener.
Nico Hischier (Halifax) — Smallish Swiss center took a while to adjust to the North American game, but now he’s showing off his full arsenal of dynamic offensive tools.
Jaret Anderson-Dolan (Spokane) — Has more skill than we had given him credit for earlier. One of the youngest in this class is maturing much faster than expected.
Morgan Frost (Sault Ste. Marie)— We’ve been impressed by how fast and forcefully he’s been playing. Trigger man has been making the Sault’s power play zing.
Isaac Ratcliffe (Guelph) — Huge winger has started putting together all the pieces, and his game is taking off rapidly. Has size, skill, and grit.
Falling:
Daniel Vertiy (North Bay) — Even with his great speed, he has not been the threat he should be, and his goal production is way below expectations.
Ostap Safin (Sparta Prague) — He’s huge and has a super heavy wrister that overpowers goalies, but is isn't tough and shows no intensity.
Off the Record — News-'n-notes from around the scouting community
For nearly a decade, we’ve seen the trend of Minnesota high school players competing in September and October in the United States Hockey League before leaving to return to their high schools as the high school season gets underway. It makes sense from a geographic perspective, and allows kids to get more game experience than they ever could in a typical 25-30 game high school season.
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But never before have we heard of New England area prep schoolers relocating from their home states, going out to play in the U.S. midwest for two months, and then returning to pick up their schooling in November, two months after the demanding prep school academic year has begun.
But that’s exactly what has happened with two of the top New England prospects this year: smooth puckhandling defenseman Reilly Walsh and big power forward R.J. Murphy.
Walsh excelled over the past eight weeks for Chicago in the USHL, but has now returned home to play for Proctor Academy, whose team is coached by his father, Mike — a former minor pro player. Murphy, meanwhile, has been toiling in Dubuque, and is coming back to Massachusetts to play at St. Sebastian’s.
We’re not exactly sure how you can parachute into the middle of a rigid prep school year — many New England prep schools are notorious in the hockey world for not letting their student/athletes take even an afternoon away from classes to participate in fall and spring showcase events — but Walsh and Murphy are no slouches with the books: both are committed to attend Harvard.
*****
One of the players in a weak Québec League crop that we took a wait-and-see approach with in the early going was Charlottetown blue-liner Pierre-Olivier Joseph. Well, we’re waiting no more.
Joseph has really taken off offensively this year, more so than we ever expected prior to the season. He has shown much more poise with the puck and is getting involved in the rush, moving up smartly at the right times as he gains confidence in his ability to recover and handle his defensive responsibilities.
Joseph will need to add lots of weight/strength to his slightly built frame (at 6-1, 158 pounds), but he’s already got plenty of jump in his legs and natural instincts at the offensive end. If he continues to progress at this pace, he’ll crack the second round in our rankings by Christmas.
*****
A pair of selections from the first round of the 2015 OHL Draft who had a rough ride in their first-year campaigns have turned the corner and become two of the biggest early risers in the OHL for this year’s NHL Draft.
Humongous Guelph winger Isaac Ratcliffe (15th overall in last year’s OHL lottery) and super skilled Niagara centre Ben Jones (OHL seventh overall pick) have already gone from afterthoughts in the preseason to looking like strong candidates to be among the top 50 overall (perhaps even first round) in Chicago next June.
Ratcliffe has the size that makes every NHL team drool at 6-6, 195 pounds. But last season he was so tall, gangly, and lacking in leg strength that he had a tough time keeping up with the play, registering only 13 points in 46 games and compiling an awful -25 plus/minus mark.
But he has already surpassed all of last year’s scoring totals with 7-10-17 (goals-assists-points) in 21 games, and his skating has picked up dramatically, now chewing up ground with a long stride. Best of all, he’s showing some edge to go along with that size, and his +10 mark is testament to the improvement in his two-way game.
Jones is a player we’ve had our eye on at Red Line since Team Canada’s U-17 evaluation camp in August of last year. That's when we felt he was one of the top 10 players in camp. Like Ratcliffe, he has already surpassed all his 2015-16 scoring totals in just his first 14 games this season, posting a point-per-game at 5-9-14 after having only nine points in 61 games last year.
He’s a shifty skater with great pop off his edges and is always centered over the puck to bounce in any direction. Jones is a flashy and imaginative puckhandler with quick, soft hands, and can also play the role of agitator with maddening effect.
Watch for both of these guys to move rapidly up NHL draft boards.
